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Kashmiri Voters Redraw Political Map

Ruling dynasty thrown out by shock election result giving power to parties which promise a fresh start
October 11, 2002
Luke Harding in Islamabad

The family that has ruled Kashmir for most of the past half century was dramatically humiliated yesterday when its party was ejected from office.

The National Conference party, which supports Indian rule, had been expected to hold on to power in the Jammu and Kashmir state elections, but it suffered a series of unexpected and crushing defeats.

Omar Abdullah, its urbane 32-year-old leader, failed to retain his seat.

Last night Mr Abdullah conceded defeat and said that the party founded by his grandfather would not try to form a government.

"I am ready to sit in opposition," he said, visibly upset and biting his nails after losing his Ganderbal constituency on the outskirts of the summer capital, Srinagar.

With virtually all the results in, the NCP had won only 28 seats in the 87-seat assembly.

Its two main rivals, the Congress and the People's Democratic party, had 20 and 16 seats respectively. They are likely to form coalition with the help of independents.

The result radically transforms Kashmir's political landscape. Mr Abdullah, who was born in Britain to an Irish mother, is India's deputy foreign minister. His party - part of the government coalition in New Delhi - was expected to win the election, which would have propelled him to the post of chief minister.

The result suggests that the polls have been reasonably free and fair. The National Conference passionately opposes Kashmiri independence, and is widely criticised in the state for bad management, corruption and arrogance.

It managed to triumph in previous elections because of widespread official rigging and coercion by the Indian army.

The parties likely to form the next government also want Kashmir to be part of India. But they represent a fresh start after the alleged sleaze of the Abdullah era, observers say.

"What has happened is a political earthquake," the Indian political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan said. "This is the best chance for some measure of normalcy."

On Wednesday the federal government, led by Hindu nationalists, said it would discuss greater autonomy for Kashmir with the new state administration, and would also hold talks with the separatist groups which boycotted the elections. They welcomed the result yesterday.

Much of the blame for NCP's defeat can be laid at the door of the outgoing chief minister, Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah's father.

He was deeply unpopular with ordinary Kashmiris, and his extravagant lifestyle and fondness for golf made him a figure of ridicule.

Yesterday he shrugged off his party's drubbing. "These things happen. Omar is a young man.

"He has to go through a lot more trauma in his life," he told Indian news channel Star TV.

Others were less sanguine.

"This is a disaster much beyond our expectations," Abdul Rashid Shaeen, a National Conference MP, admitted.

The man who defeated Omar Abdullah, Qazi Mohammed Afzal, said: "By voting me in, the people of Ganderbal have freed themselves from the dynastic rule of the Abdullah family."

London and Washington will now look to India and Pakistan to resume a dialogue on Kashmir, the issue that has poisoned their relations ever since independence.

Pakistan has dismissed the elections as a farce. India has accused Islamabad of supporting the Islamist militants who have carried out a series of bloody attacks in Kashmir, most recently during the election campaign, in which around 800 people have died.

The militants described the vote as a sham and threatened to kill anybody who took part. The official turnout, considered good at 46%, was inflated, they added.

In Muslim Srinagar, where separatist sentiment is strong, only 11% of the electorate voted. But in Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu the turnout was as high as 60%.

Lumped together the figures form a decent average.

The four weeks of polling have been marred by militant violence.

The Indian police said yesterday that militants threw a grenade at a security force patrol in Bijbehara, 30 miles south of Srinagar. It missed and wounded two civilians.

Nine suspected militants were killed in a gun battle in Badgam district, south-west of Srinagar, they added.

Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged fire across the Kashmir border.

Yesterday's result means that Kashmiris wake up this morning to a new era. Since the British created Kashmir in the 19th century, the state has been ruled by two dynasties - first the Hindu maharajahs of Kashmir and then the Muslim Abdullahs.

The last maharajah of Kash mir, Hari Singh, fled Srinagar in 1947. At the same time India and Pakistan fought their first war over Kashmir and divided its territory in two.

Sheikh Abdullah, a populist figure known as the Lion of Kashmir, took power in Indian Kashmir after independence and was succeeded by his son and grandson.

The uprising against Indian rule in the state began soon after New Delhi rigged the 1987 elections in favour of the National Conference. Since then about 50,000 people - militants, soldiers and civilians - have died. Kashmir is the only part of India with a Muslim majority. But most ordinary Kashmiris want to be part of neither India nor Pakistan and demand independence.

Family fortunes
· Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah of Kashmir founds Muslim Conference party in 1932. Opposes splitting India into Hindu and Muslim states after independence. Spurns overtures to join Pakistan

· Abdullah elected Kashmir's first leader in 1948. He resists repeated Indian efforts to integrate Kashmir more fully

· Dismissed as PM in 1953 and jailed by India for 11 years, accused of corruption and planning independence. Interned from 1965 to 1968. Exiled from Kashmir in 1971 for 18 months

· Returns to mainstream Indian politics in 1975 after accord with Indira Gandhi. Gives up demand for plebiscite and Mrs Gandhi rewards him with job of chief minister. Abdullah, the 'Lion of Kashmir' dies in 1982

· Farooq Abdullah, his son, becomes chief minister. Sacked in 1990 for failing to stem Muslim insurgency. Returns in 1996 as leader of National Conference party

· In 1998 Omar Abdullah, Farooq's son, wins Srinagar seat. Becomes a minister of state in India's foreign ministry
Richard Nelsson
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